A very strong solar flare occurred yesterday and is probably sending solar storm energy toward Earth. The energy could make Northern Lights.
NASA says a solar flare ranked with a strength of X7.1 occurred on the earth-facing side of the sun. This ranking of X7.1 puts the solar flare in the strong category. NASA states this is the second strongest solar flare of this current solar cycle.
The solar flare on May 14 of this year was the strongest so far, ranked at X8.7 in strength. That solar flare, combined with a few other flares, produced several days of intense Northern Lights across America.
The image below shows that yesterday’s solar flare was pointed toward Earth. NASA is still trying to determine whether the energy from the solar flare is coming straight toward Earth’s atmosphere or if we will just get a solar storm sideswipe.
Solar flare shows up as the bright spot on the lower left part of the sun on October 1, 2024 (source: NASA- Solar Dynamics Observatory)NASA
Now the trick is to figure out when and how much of the solar energy will hit Earth’s atmosphere. There will be updates in the next few days. Right now, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center says the energy will hit Earth on Oct. 5 or 6.
Just based on the strength of this solar flare compared to the May 14 solar storm, there should be more than enough solar energy to produce widespread Northern Lights around those dates.
The forecasts produced by NOAA for solar energy only go out three days. Currently the solar energy is not forecast to hit in the next three days, but it could hit the next day, according to NOAA.
NOAA has also determined there is a mass of solar energy that was spewed out during the solar flare. They call it a Coronal Mass Ejection, or CME. This energy is what actually will produce the Northern Lights.
We will watch for Northern Lights here in Michigan this weekend or early next week. Check here for updates tomorrow and Friday.